France's potential for deploying carbon removal

FULL REPORT (ENG)

ROADMAP (FR)

To achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement and stabilise global warming well below two degrees Celsius, most countries must achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. In addition to reducing their emissions as quickly as possible, countries must rapidly develop their carbon dioxide removal (CDR) capacities to neutralise their residual emissions and prepare the net negative phase required to stay within the carbon budget. 

However, it remains unclear how much CDR each country should deploy, what are their potential capacities for deploying CDR without tampering with their efforts to cut emissions, and finally how to achieve a rapid and fair deployment that is supported by civil society. This information is necessary to enable countries to plan for the deployment and use of CDR, and to avoid the risks of mitigation deterrence if some countries are tempted to rely more heavily on future deployment of CDR and reduce the pressure on short-term emissions reductions.

Providing answers 

This report presents the results of the “Country CDR readiness assessment” project for France, carried out by Carbon Gap. The main objective of this project is to provide initial quantified answers to the questions mentioned above, to support countries in adopting ambitious yet responsible CDR objectives. The study proposes a bottom-up analysis of the resources available in France to estimate the theoretical and then achievable potential for deploying CDR methods. Because the deployment of new methods such as CDR is not just a technical issue, the study also looks at the ‘social geography’ to characterise the perceptions of stakeholders on this subject, including the general public. It is structured around the following steps: 

1. Evaluation and selection of the CDR methods to be considered in the assessment; 

2. Characterisation of resource requirements for the selected CDR methods; 

3. Assessment of the maximum theoretical availability for each of the resources required for the CDR methods: renewable electricity, waste heat, biomass, capacity for geological storage of CO2, etc...; 

4. Estimation of the maximum theoretical CDR potential; 

5. Evaluation of the French regulatory, economic and political environment; 

6. Analysis of societal perceptions of the desirability of deploying CDR in France; 

Estimation of the practical CDR potential in France up to 2050, with a cut-off point in 2030, based on three scenarios; Significant potential The various CDR methods, grouped into (i) biomass conversion, (ii) improved ecosystem management, (iii) electrochemical methods and (iv) geochemical methods, are all reviewed in the report, and their respective theoretical potentials are assessed based on the available resources. This “maximalist” assessment initially leads to a theoretical CDR potential of around 780 MtCO2eq/year in France by 2050. This potential represents a theoretical maximum if all available resources were directed towards CDR, which would be unattainable in practice under current conditions. 

Three possible scenarios 

In drafting this report, the researchers applied additional constraints and more conservative assumptions on resource uses to identify the proportion of this theoretical potential that would be achievable under conditions close to the current situation. Three scenarios were then built and compared with the level of residual emissions anticipated by the SNBC2, i.e. 80 MtCO2eq of which ~30 MtCO2eq of fossil origin and ~50 MtCO2eq of biogenic origin. With the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at a level of 10 MtCO2eq/year to intercept part of these residual emissions, natural sinks and CDR would have to neutralise around 70 MtCO2eq/year for France to meet its carbon neutrality target by 2050. This assumption is used as a target value in the construction of scenarios.

A portfolio approach 

The proposed deployment scenarios leverage a variety of CDR methods. Nevertheless, the study clearly shows that the availability of geologic storage capacity, the availability of additional decarbonised energy, and the level of remuneration for carbon farming practices are the main limiting factors for a deployment at scale. Proactive, coordinated policies are needed to remove these obstacles and build a regulatory environment that provides the necessary guarantees for a responsible use of CDR. Given the diversity of methods and the multiple dependencies on related sectors (such as energy), it seems important to build a genuine French CDR strategy that would enable France to meet its climate commitments while harnessing the benefits of the chosen CDR activities and their organised development throughout the territory.